European Elections: Make-or-break for EV progress?

By Jon Lawes, Managing Director, MHC Mobility

The European Parliament elections are rapidly approaching and as citizens across the bloc prepare to cast their ballots, five years of EV transition and decarbonisation progress hang in the balance. As voting day approaches there are growing anxieties around a potential “greenlash” driven by a tough economic outlook and growing pushback against regulations necessary to meet strict climate goals.

Businesses and consumers alike will be watching this month’s results closely as the outcome could prove pivotal to the future of green ambitions across the EU.

Greenlash fears loom

In the past year, European nations have committed to ambitious 2050 decarbonisation targets, reductions in vehicle emissions via the EURO 7 standards, and ramped up investment in green technologies through the Net Zero Industry Act.

Yet, Europe’s political institutions have also struggled to stay the course. Last October’s appointment of Wopke Hoekstra and Maroš Šefčovič to the EU’s key climate action bodies demonstrated the level of politicisation facing the transition – with Hoekstra facing extended scrutiny for past comments disparaging the climate transition and his connections to fossil fuel producers.

Against a backdrop of public discontent as businesses and consumers alike begin to feel the realities of some net-zero measures, the ‘greenlash’ has the potential to significantly impact the progressive commitments made by the EU's political hopefuls.

For instance, the visibility of demonstrations by farming communities across Europe in response to environmental regulations has worried many and shown once again how quickly climate issues can become politicised.

The growth of the Netherlands’ Farmer Citizen Movement, the Italian government’s moves against EU green initiatives, and most strikingly Poland’s attempted legal challenge of the EU’s 2035 ICE ban all threaten to cool commitments to climate action.

Some countries have already rolled back or delayed certain green initiatives, particularly in agriculture. This has exacerbated a trend affecting the automotive market, as countries seek to save money by cutting tax breaks and incentives for green technologies, from EVs to charging infrastructure.

A lack of support

These cost pressures and subsequent cutbacks cannot be ignored. Many of the issues raised by the greenlash stem from a perceived lack of support from key sectors.

We have seen in recent months that European automakers have become increasingly critical of the EU’s 2035 net-zero target, questioning its practicality and demanding greater support for the transition. Manufacturers argue that the current targets were set without a clear pathway, placing a significant burden on the bloc’s automotive base without additional financial and structural support.

With market share for EVs starting to plateau, a loss of local incentives has already led to a slowdown in progress at a time when near-exponential growth is required. ACEA data underscores this concern, with market share for EV registrations remaining flat in April 2024 at around 12% in line with the previous year. There is a very real danger that an unsupportive European Parliament could further stall the hard-fought progress of the last decade.

A pivotal moment for Europe

The forthcoming elections will be vital for the future of the EU's net-zero plans. Without politicians supportive of current efforts to create a functioning EV ecosystem, the EU risks jeopardising its sustainability progress.

The momentum of European fleets in embracing decarbonisation has been encouraging and on the whole European businesses are determined to deliver on their sustainability goals, with fleet providers being an essential partner. However, without the continued support of policymakers, the decarbonisation efforts of many European businesses could face significant delays.